Rolling Bearing is a key component of the transmission of rotating machinery, and it is widely used in industrial fields. Therefore, it is of vital importance to evaluate the performance and reliability of rolling bearing. Aiming at the interference problems faced by rolling bearings during operation, a performance evaluation model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) rule is proposed in this article. Firstly, the time domain and frequency domain characteristic indicators of bearing vibration signals are taken as evaluation indicators, and the evaluation system is constructed. Secondly, various indicator information is unified into a belief structure, and the reliability and the weight of the indicators are fully considered in the ER rule. Thirdly, to simulate the complex working environment of rolling bearings, the perturbation analysis method is adopted. After determining the maximum perturbation error and perturbation coefficient, the performance reliability of the rolling bearing is analysed, and a performance reliability evaluation model considering perturbation is proposed. Finally, based on the whole-life open data set of rolling bearing from the University of Cincinnati, the validity and reliability of the proposed model are verified in performance analysis.